Determining the cost of real estate in the unstable market

Abstract

The article deals with the issues of conducting forensic appraisal-building and appraisal-land expertise and expert research of valuation of immovable property in an unstable market.

It should be noted that:

1. Using a comparative methodological approach in the present extremely adverse market conditions prevailing in Ukraine, including, and on the background of the rapid devaluation of the national currency against the U.S. dollar, needs assessment (court expert or appraiser) a clear awareness of the fact that almost all the participants of the real estate market at the moment have taken a wait that led to the actual absence of the market itself.

1. The real estate market, which has always been characterized by a certain inertia, in virtue of their nature, react to any changes in the economy only after a certain period of time, that is, a so-called «temporary delay». The process of reaching the market to its equilibrium state is delayed in time because the market participants still can not adapt to new economic realities as the situation in the country as a whole continues to change literally every day and talk about any signs of stabilization earlier.
2. Analysis of General dynamics (trend) behavior of the real estate market shows that the hryvnia and the dollar prices in practice «diverge», that is, prices denominated in us dollars decrease, and the Ukrainian currency is going up.

1. Under these conditions, within the comparative methodological approach by conducting a court expert or appraiser procedures, the so-called «actualization» of the value proposition analogues on the valuation date of a particular object in an environment of rapid devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia is not just permissible but essential as it allows the contractor estimates to neutralize the factor «retrospectives»announcements are about objects-analogues in conditions of high volatility of the currency market. This procedure is advantageously carried out in the final part of the stage of collecting and analysing information about the sale or supply of such real property and identifying objects of comparison, and directly after that go to the comparison of object of evaluation with the objects of comparison and then correcting the already «updated» the sales price or offer price of the objects of comparison.
2. The procedure «updating» of the value proposition analogues on the valuation date is advantageously carried out using the above empirical relationships.

1. The performers of the assessment can also use a mathematical expression to calculate the magnitude of typical discounts for the bargain, the absolute value of which depends on the three market variables: the forecast term exposure, discount rate and annual rate of market value change in time of the specific property.
2. For active and developed markets in which the typical time frames of exposure are relatively small, particularly in periods of rapidly rising prices, discounts to the trade are significantly reduced or disappear altogether.
3. In periods of stagnation in the markets, for which the typical time of exposure significantly increased, especially in periods of lower prices, discounts on bargaining, on the contrary, have been increasing substantially, and have in fact, as of today.