O. Borys, O. Shmereho
The article considers the practice of using mathematical calculations for the evacuation of people from buildings in the event of a possible fire in forensic activities. The purpose of such calculations is to ensure the sufficiency of the evidence in the consideration of administrative disputes related to the consideration of claims of state supervision (control) bodies for the application of appropriate sanctions. To date, the applied mathematical method of expert research is not scientifically systematized and not justified by the science of forensic expertology. Existing approaches to mathematical modeling, as a rule, are limited to the use of simplified calculation models with significant errors. To solve this scientific problem, the article considers the problems and provisions of individual regulatory and technical acts regulating the assessment of fire safety risks in Ukraine.
It is noted that the issues of a comprehensive assessment of the fire safety of business facilities are not directly related to the process of proof during the fire-technical examination in terms of the safe evacuation of people. Decisions about the presence of a real threat to the life and health of people at the facility are characterized by the probability
of an event that is a mathematical reflection of uncertainty, and the condition for the safe
evacuation of people is the allowable ratio between the estimated time of the evacuation
of people from the premises of the building and the time of blocking evacuation routes as
a result of the spread of dangerous fire factors.
Mathematical methods are systematized and the requirements for the choice of mathematical modeling models during fire-technical examinations are substantiated.
In order to ensure the sufficiency of proof of the expert opinion, it is proposed to use the following approaches: methods and calculation models in the context of forensic science should achieve the most realistic picture of modeling the processes of people evacuation and the spread of fire hazards at the object of study; it is expedient to use the field method and the individual flow model of the movement of people; the initial simulation data should correspond to the conditions and circumstances of a probable fire, under which the worst consequences are expected for the safe evacuation of people from the object of study; compliance with licensing requirements for software and assessment (examination) of the fire-prevention state of objects is a procedurally fixed form of fixing evidentiary information.
Key words: fire technical examination, mathematical modeling, calculation
models, evacuation of people, a threat to life, proof.